Numbers

Oct 2024 to Sep 2026Updated just nowTrailing 12 months Oct 2025 to Sep 2026

What a customer is allowed to cost

The unit economics: what the first order returns in gross profit sets the ceiling on what a new customer can cost. Everything else in this audit is judged against these four figures.

Target CAC

$25

Half of first-order gross profit

The client’s own target is $31. Ours comes from the margin, not from last year’s cost.

Breakeven CAC

$50

All of first-order gross profit

Above this, every new customer loses money on the first order. First orders average $101.

CPA now

$76

On default attribution

Last three months $76 against $64 the twelve before. Rising cost with flat volume is the warning sign.

True gross margin

49.2%▼ 12.8%

The client states 62%

After cost of goods, fees, shipping and a measured refund rate of 3.0%. The stated margin usually forgets two of those.

Customers bought, what they cost, what they returned

The cohort model: each month's new customers, the cost to win each one, and the gross profit their first order returned. When red rises above green, the account is buying customers at a loss.

Cohort model, 24 months

New customersCAC, cost of a new customerFirst-order gross profitTarget CAC $25

September 2026

The latest month in the window.

New customers: 5,970
Cost of each: $78
First-order gross profit: $49
Profit to cost: 0.63
Twelve-month average: 0.73
New customers, last 3 months: 1.06× the prior 12

A ratio under 1.0 means the first order does not cover the customer’s cost. 2.0 to 3.0 is the band where spend can scale.

Marketing efficiency, blended against acquisition

Blended MER counts every dollar of revenue against ad spend; Acquisition MER counts only first-time customers. The gap between the two is revenue the ads would have earned anyway.

Blended MER against Acquisition MER, by month

Blended MER (all revenue)Acquisition MER (first-time revenue)

Trailing twelve months

Blended MER: 2.33
Acquisition MER: 1.47
Spend: $4.8m
First-time revenue: $7.1m

Acquisition MER is the number we manage to. Blended MER flatters an account with a loyal base.

Does the platform’s number track reality

Meta's reported return depends on the attribution setting. We pick the setting whose month-to-month moves agree with Acquisition MER, and judge how far the default overstates.

Acquisition MER against ROAS by attribution setting

tracks on default

Acquisition MERROAS, platform defaultROAS, 7-day clickROAS, 7-day click and 1-day engaged view

What it means

Gap multiple: 1.52
Setting that tracks: default
Purchases from 1-day view: 31%

The platform default reports 1.52 times what the business actually made per dollar. Above 2, the account is being run on a number that is not real.

Where the next dollar stops paying

Spend more on ads and revenue rises, but each extra dollar buys a little less. This step finds the budget where the next dollar stops paying for itself: every week of the last year is plotted as spend a day against revenue a day, a curve is drawn through the weeks, and the optimum is where profit after ads peaks. Account structure, targeting and creative all show up as the shape of this curve.

Optimal monthly spend

$172k

Spending now: $477k a month, average of the last 28 days

The monthly ad budget where profit after ads is highest. Below it there is profitable growth left unclaimed; above it every extra dollar costs more than it brings back.

Revenue at optimal

$583k

A month, at the optimal spend

What the store would take in a month at that budget, including the sales it would make with no ads at all.

The next dollar brings back

$1.07

It needs to bring back $2.03 to break even

Revenue from one more dollar of ad spend at today's budget, against what that dollar must return to cover the ads and the cost of goods. Above breakeven, spending more adds profit; below it, the account is past the optimum.

Being burned each month

$87,507

Profit lost by spending past the optimum

The difference in monthly profit after ads between the current budget and the optimal one.

Spend against revenue, week by week

Each dot is one week: how much was spent on ads a day (across) and how much the store took a day (up). The blue curve runs through the dots and bends because each extra dollar buys a little less. The green line is what is left of that revenue after cost of goods and the ads themselves are paid for: it rises, peaks at the yellow line, then falls. The peak is the optimal spend. The dashed line is where the account is now.

One week: ad spend a day, revenue a dayRevenue curveProfit after the ads are paid forOptimal spendSpend now, last 28 days

The verdict

Being burnedPast about $172k a month a marginal dollar returns less than it costs at this margin. Pulling back towards the optimum protects profit.

Weeks fitted: 52
Fit: good, R² 0.91
Organic baseline: $3,199 a day
Margin used: 49.2%

What the next dollar brings back

The same curve read as a return on the next dollar of daily ad spend. It falls as spend rises. The red line is breakeven: what a dollar must bring back to cover the ads and the cost of goods. Where the blue line drops below it, the next dollar costs more than it makes, and the shaded zone is money being burned.

What the next dollar brings backBreakeven: what it must bring back to cover its costOptimal spendSpend nowBurning money: the next dollar brings back less than it costs

The same thing in customers

The next customer costs: $94
The most a customer can cost: $50
Optimal spend a day: $5,646
Spend now, a day: $15,682

At today’s budget the next new customer costs the first figure; the second is the most one can cost before the first order loses money. When the first is above the second, the next customer is bought at a loss.

Profit and loss, month by month

Twelve months from net revenue down to what was left after marketing. Switch between every order and first-time customers only: the second view is what acquisition alone returned.

All orders, month by month

Everything the store sold, down to what was left after marketing.

CM1CM2CM3

Line	Oct 25	Nov 25	Dec 25	Jan 26	Feb 26	Mar 26	Apr 26	May 26	Jun 26	Jul 26	Aug 26	Sep 26	12 months
Net revenue	$852k	$867k	$923k	$971k	$874k	$962k	$923k	$960k	$940k	$975k	$997k	$987k	$11.2m
Cost of goods	-$310k	-$315k	-$335k	-$353k	-$317k	-$350k	-$335k	-$349k	-$342k	-$354k	-$362k	-$358k	-$4.1m
Contribution margin 1	$543k	$552k	$588k	$618k	$556k	$613k	$588k	$611k	$599k	$621k	$635k	$628k	$7.2m
Shipping and fulfilment	-$69,864	-$70,864	-$75,792	-$79,512	-$71,648	-$79,320	-$75,448	-$78,952	-$77,472	-$80,840	-$82,088	-$81,280	-$923k
Transaction fees	-$27,334	-$27,792	-$29,613	-$31,135	-$28,029	-$30,877	-$29,608	-$30,789	-$30,166	-$31,299	-$31,983	-$31,661	-$360k
Contribution margin 2	$445k	$453k	$482k	$507k	$457k	$502k	$483k	$501k	$491k	$508k	$521k	$515k	$5.9m
Marketing	-$335k	-$342k	-$372k	-$393k	-$365k	-$413k	-$396k	-$426k	-$411k	-$440k	-$470k	-$465k	-$4.8m
Contribution margin 3	$111k	$111k	$110k	$115k	$92,106	$89,560	$86,616	$75,658	$79,905	$68,809	$50,749	$50,108	$1.0m

Net revenue is net sales plus the shipping the customer paid, since the store receives it. Cost of goods is the client’s share of the selling price before discounts, applied to gross sales less returns (a discount does not make the product cheaper to buy); the fee rate is a share of net revenue; shipping, fulfilment and the fixed fee are per order, all from INPUTS; marketing is Meta plus Google spend. First-time revenue is each new customer’s first order.

The 24-month spine

Every month in the window. The trailing twelve feed the summaries above.

Monthly figures

Month	Net revenue	Orders	AOV	New	Returning	Spend	Blended MER	Acq. MER	CAC	GP:CAC	Gap
Oct 2024	$559k	5,698	$98	3,976	1,722	$207k	2.70	1.93	$52	0.95	1.53
Nov 2024	$590k	6,017	$98	4,127	1,890	$218k	2.71	1.91	$53	0.94	1.52
Dec 2024	$638k	6,505	$98	4,384	2,121	$239k	2.67	1.85	$55	0.91	1.51
Jan 2025	$653k	6,628	$99	4,487	2,141	$243k	2.68	1.86	$54	0.92	1.51
Feb 2025	$588k	5,986	$98	3,993	1,993	$218k	2.70	1.85	$55	0.91	1.52
Mar 2025	$709k	7,282	$97	4,843	2,439	$267k	2.65	1.81	$55	0.89	1.53
Apr 2025	$714k	7,230	$99	4,725	2,505	$265k	2.70	1.82	$56	0.90	1.50
May 2025	$771k	7,861	$98	5,121	2,740	$290k	2.66	1.78	$57	0.88	1.52
Jun 2025	$765k	7,747	$99	5,021	2,726	$295k	2.59	1.72	$59	0.85	1.51
Jul 2025	$827k	8,521	$97	5,494	3,027	$324k	2.55	1.69	$59	0.83	1.54
Aug 2025	$826k	8,442	$98	5,453	2,989	$325k	2.54	1.69	$60	0.83	1.53
Sep 2025	$797k	8,179	$97	5,233	2,946	$313k	2.55	1.68	$60	0.83	1.53
Oct 2025	$852k	8,733	$98	5,520	3,213	$335k	2.55	1.67	$61	0.82	1.51
Nov 2025	$867k	8,858	$98	5,597	3,261	$342k	2.53	1.64	$61	0.81	1.52
Dec 2025	$923k	9,474	$97	5,898	3,576	$372k	2.48	1.60	$63	0.79	1.52
Jan 2026	$971k	9,939	$98	6,128	3,811	$393k	2.47	1.57	$64	0.78	1.52
Feb 2026	$874k	8,956	$98	5,523	3,433	$365k	2.40	1.53	$66	0.75	1.52
Mar 2026	$962k	9,915	$97	6,168	3,747	$413k	2.33	1.50	$67	0.74	1.53
Apr 2026	$923k	9,431	$98	5,785	3,646	$396k	2.33	1.48	$69	0.73	1.52
May 2026	$960k	9,869	$97	5,995	3,874	$426k	2.25	1.41	$71	0.70	1.53
Jun 2026	$940k	9,684	$97	5,785	3,899	$411k	2.29	1.42	$71	0.70	1.52
Jul 2026	$975k	10,105	$96	6,034	4,071	$440k	2.22	1.37	$73	0.67	1.54
Aug 2026	$997k	10,261	$97	6,143	4,118	$470k	2.12	1.31	$76	0.65	1.53
Sep 2026	$987k	10,160	$97	5,970	4,190	$465k	2.12	1.29	$78	0.63	1.53